Annual Security and Reserve Energy Needs Assessment [Closing date: 2007/11/16 17:00:00 GMT+13]

In accordance with the Electricity Act and government energy policy the Commission is charged with ensuring New Zealand 's electricity needs can be met in a 1-in-60 dry year, and without the need for emergency conservation campaigns.

While it would be preferable for electricity market participants to achieve the desired security standard through independent market mechanisms, this has not always occurred.

One of the Commission’s key responsibilities is to forecast three to five years out to identify any 'shortfalls' in the system's ability to meet New Zealand's electricity needs, to a security standard of 1-in-60. Where the Commission identifies a shortfall, it is expected by the government to contract for reserve energy.

The Annual Security and Reserve Energy Needs Assessment October 2007 pdf [819 KB] report considers the need for additional (in addition to Whirinaki) reserve energy in 2008 and updates the previous 2007 analysis.

• Annual Security and Reserve Energy Needs Assessment - October 2007 pdf [819 KB]

The methodology used to assess whether the 1-in-60 security standard can be met is similar to the method used in previous needs analysis, and accords with the Commissions Initial Security of Supply Policy pdf [55 KB]. The underlying approach makes an assessment of the technical capability of the generation and transmission system to meet anticipated electricity demand and therefore relies on a number of key inputs which are each discussed in the report. They include:

• forecast demand;
• the availability and capability of the transmission system and generators, especially thermal generation; and
• the availability of fuel for thermal generation.

Comment is now sought on each of these input assumptions.

This year an assessment has also been made of the power system’s technical capacity to meet peak demands during the winter of 2008. i.e. a technical assessment of ‘peak supply adequacy’ in 2008.

This report will form the substantive base upon which a decision about the need for reserve energy for 2009 will be made.

The Commission is seeking to reach a decision on the need for additional reserve energy in December 2007. Therefore, comment on the Annual Security and Reserve Energy Needs Analysis October 2007 report is sought by 16 November 2007.

Comments should preferably be sent by e-mail, in Word format, to:

Jenny Walton
Electricity Commission
Level 7, ASB Tower
2 Hunter Street
PO Box 10041
Wellington
New Zealand

Tel: (04) 460 8858
Fax: (04) 460 8879

info@electricitycommission.govt.nz

The Commission will acknowledge receipt of all submissions electronically. Please contact Jenny Walton if you have not received an acknowledgement of your submission within two business days.

The Commission is required to undertake its functions with a high degree of transparency. Accordingly, please be aware that any information provided to the Commission may be discussed with, or provided to, other parties UNLESS you specify that information is provided to the Commission as 'Commercial in Confidence', in which case you should specify the information that is confidential and the reasons. You should also be aware that the Commission is subject to the Official Information Act 1982.