Demand forecasting methodology for Security of Supply [Closing date: 2007/05/07 17:00:00 GMT+12]

In accordance with the Electricity Act and government energy policy the Commission is charged with ensuring New Zealand 's electricity needs can be met in most circumstances without the need for involuntary demand management.

One of the Commission’s key responsibilities is to forecast five to ten years out to identify any 'shortfalls' in the system's ability to meet New Zealand's electricity needs.

Several different approaches to demand forecasting have been used in recent assessments of security of supply and of the need for additional reserve energy.  Future assessments will consider both energy and the peak demand capability of the electricity system to meet forecast demand over the ‘medium term’, i.e. the next 5–10 years. Through consultation on reserve energy need assessments stakeholders have taken the opportunity to comment on demand forecasting methods used by the Commission.

The Commission has explored possible medium-term forecasting options and proposes forecasting methodologies to be used in future security of supply assessments. The Commission seeks comment on the proposed forecasting methodologies set out in the paper Demand forecasting methodology for Security of Supply.

• Demand forecasting methodology for Security of Supply pdf [229 KB]

Submissions are sought on the paper by 5pm on 7 May 2007. Comments should preferably be sent by e-mail, in Word format, to:

Jenny Walton
Electricity Commission
Level 7, ASB Tower
2 Hunter Street
PO Box 10041
Wellington
New Zealand

Tel: (04) 460 8858
Fax: (04) 460 8879

Email: info@electricitycommission.govt.nz

The Commission will acknowledge receipt of all submissions electronically. Please contact Jenny Walton if you have not received an acknowledgement of your submission within two business days.

The Commission is required to undertake its functions with a high degree of transparency. Accordingly, please be aware that any information provided to the Commission may be discussed with, or provided to, other parties UNLESS you specify that information is provided to the Commission as 'Commercial in Confidence', in which case you should specify the information that is confidential and the reasons. You should also be aware that the Commission is subject to the Official Information Act 1982.