National forecast

The Commission uses an econometric model for its national level electricity demand forecasts. The econometric model uses the historical relationship between electricity demand and drivers of demand such as population to project future demand based on forecasts of those drivers. The drivers used are population, GDP, number of households, temperature, electricity price, and a correction for shortage years.

The forecasting model was developed in MATLAB. The MATLAB model calculates confidence limits for the forecasts using a technique called Monte Carlo simulation.

The MATLAB scripts, historical data, forecast drivers, and tables of forecast values used in the preparation of forecasts for the 2005 Statement of Opportunities are provided below.

• National forecast MATLAB files
  
• Forecast review documents
  
• Forecast values table

Regional forecast

A draft regional forecast was prepared by the Commission. It was not included in the Grid Planning Assumptions published in the 2005 Statement of Opportunities. In the interim the Commission adopted the Transpower regional demand allocation until a number of alternative approaches could be reviewed and a final approach selected.