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Grid planning assumptions

Index

Introduction

The grid planning assumptions (GPAs) are a set of information, published by the Commission, for use in the Commission's Statement of Opportunities (SOO). The information includes:

  • committed projects for additional generation, transmission and demand-side management;
  • a range of credible demand forecasts by region and grid exit point (i.e. high, medium, and low); and
  • a reasonable range of credible future, high-level generation scenarios.

2006-2008 GPAs

In September 2006, the Commission developed draft GPAs as an initial step in preparing a 2007 SOO. This included the preparation and publication of demand forecasts and four generation scenarios for consultation with interested parties.

In May 2007, the Commission decided to delay the publication of the next SOO until the New Zealand Energy Strategy was finalised. However, the Commission confirmed and published the draft demand forecasts and generation scenarios that were developed and consulted on in September 2006.

Following finalisation of the New Zealand Energy Strategy and receipt of additional information from Transpower, the Commission revised the generation scenarios and other key inputs to the draft GPAs that were released in May 2007 and recommenced work on preparing a 2008 SOO.

The Commission published the draft 2008 GPAs for consultation in February 2008.

As part of its process to seek feedback from participants about the development of the GPAs, the Commission held a workshop on 29 February 2008 in Wellington. The workshop was both of a general and a technical nature and provided stakeholders with an opportunity to hear directly from Commission staff and to ask questions about various aspects of the GPAs.)

Comments on the draft 2008 GPAs were sought by 5 pm on Thursday 13 March 2008.

Following consultation, the Commission refined its generation scenarios for inclusion in the draft 2008 SOO.

 

2009 GPA - Consultation (October 2009)

In mid-2009, the Commission started preparing an updated set of GPA for use in the 2010 SOO. Although still work-in-progress, the work on the scenarios has reached the point where input from stakeholders would be particularly beneficial.

With regard to the demand forecasts, the Commission is currently reviewing the underlying model and therefore, most of the feedback sought in the  2009 GPA consultation paper is around input assumptions and methodology of the demand forecasts as changes in the population growth forecasts produced by Statistics New Zealand appear likely to impact significantly on the Commission’s forecasts. The Commission considers it prudent to have its methodology peer reviewed before publishing an updated version. Therefore, in preparing the 2009 GPA scenarios, the Commission used the 2008 demand forecasts. The Commission will consult on revised demand forecasts for the 2010 GPA later on this year.

The Commission expects stakeholders and Transpower to use the GPA presented here as an appropriate starting point for their own analyses.

As part of its process to seek feedback from participants about the development of the GPA, the Commission held a workshop on 16 October 2009 in Wellington (James Cook Hotel Grand Chancellor, 147 the Terrace, Wellington). The workshop was of both a general and a technical nature and provided stakeholders with an opportunity to hear directly from Commission staff and to ask questions about various aspects of the GPA.

Comments on the draft 2009 GPAs were sought by 5 pm on Friday 6 November 2009, The Commission received 11 submissions.

 

GPA Input Files 

Following the 16 October 2009 workshop a request was made for the input data used in the GEM runs.

The following input files were used for developing the 2009 GPA

 

2009 Demand forecasts – Consultation (December 2009)

As mentioned above the 2009 generation scenarios were prepared using the 2008 demand forecasts. The Commission had noted that the 2009 demand forecasts would be peer reviewed before being published for consultation.

Two peer reviews have indicated that the Commission’s approach was reasonable and the Commission sought stakeholders’ feedback on the 2009 demand forecasts.

The deadline for feedback was 5pm on Friday 29 January 2010, 3 submissions were received.

Other technical reports

The following report on Nuclear Feasibility was completed by an undergraduate student and may be of interest to stakeholders. Nuclear options have not been used in the 2009 GPA’s and the report is provided for information only.

 

Statement of Opportunities

Last update on 03 February 2010 09:51 AM