Commission demand forecast model

A new model forecasting New Zealand electricity demand for the next 20 years has been published by the Commission. The model forecasts annual growth to average 2% a year over the next 20 years.

The model includes information on socio-economic trends, national income, demographics, electricity processes and national obligations to promote greater energy efficiency. It is built around three main sectors — residential, commercial and light industrial, and heavy industrial — and recognises the different growth characteristics in each.

This is the Commission’s first national forecast. It will be continually evolving the model over time. A first step of this on-going work will include developing specific regional forecasts.

A reliable, readily available and robust electricity-demand forecast will assist interested parties make submissions to the Commission and to prepare investment planning information using a common base.

The model is an important building-block in the long-term professional development of the electricity industry and for improving planning certainty.

• FAQs

The Commission's modelling and forecasting group is currently working on the following workplan items:

• The centralised dataset - the centralised dataset is now available on request
• Demand forecasting - a national level demand forecast has been completed
• Support for Part F processes - assisting with the Statement of Opportunities preparation
• Supply and demand balance modelling
• Consultation documents
• Submissions

"Rule 9.3 of section III of part F of the Electricity Governance Rules (Rules) provides that no liability will attach to the Board, Transpower or any other person for the accuracy of the grid planning assumptions set out in the statements of opportunities. The demand forecasts are part of the grid planning assumptions, which are prepared under the Rules to assist the statement of opportunities to meet its purpose under the Rules (and the demand forecast model is used to produce the demand forecasts)."